The Art of Decisions: How to Manage in an Uncertain World (Financial Times Series) Review

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(More customer reviews)Even though making decisions is a life skill, books on decision making never hit main stream. The minority of readers interested in the subject find a great choice of books incl. Think Twice, Seeking Wisdom, Smart Choices. What makes THE ART OF DECISIONS different to the other books is the applicability: the author provides real life issues with real life examples. This earns him my highest praise.
The author covers many examples on decision making as a manager, entrepreneur or VC. The intellectual capability of the author is impressive and readers who like the topics will be excited reading the book. Many of the decision making problems are viewed through the lense of a passionate poker player.
Readers who are familiar with the writings of Nassim Taleb will immediately see some resemblance the in the topics covered in this book. Chris Blake certainly likes Nassim Taleb and the reader might get the feeling that he imitates Nassim Taleb on occasions. While I'm a huge fan of Nassim Taleb, Chris Blake achieves something Nassim Taleb probably won't ever achieve; applicability. On the downside, you will laugh out loud a lot while reading Nassim Taleb which won't happen with this book.
My two favored chapters were `Deciding close to home' and `Deciding far from home'. Basically how we should make decisions where we are experienced (home) and where we are unexperienced (far from home). In particular the later, when we don't have, or don't trust our own experience, we can use `rules of thumbs' to guide our decisions - effectively the experience of others.
Business decisions are decisions about the deployment of resources - people, time or money. This book is worthy every minute and money spent on.


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Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time Review

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(More customer reviews)A relative glut of periodicals and books exist on decisionmaking, whether personally or professionally. Many have solid foundations, many are commercialized tripe. In MAKING DECISIONS, authors Russo and Shoemaker hit on a timely subject for professional managers or entrepreneurs. The economy has plummeted and the stock market has deflated propelling each individual responsble for their company's path to success into crucial, perhaps vital decisions on a daily basis. And the rapid rate of change is forcing all executives and managers to make decisions faster.
Given the current environment, it is well worth the time to revisit an executive/manager's most basic of tasks: making a decision...a subject devoid of attention except in academic journals or business books. In a straightforward, well-presented fashion, the authors break down the decisionmaking process into four steps:
1. Framing or deciding what you are going to decide-and not decide;
2. Gathering intelligence-real intelligence, and not just information that will support your internal biases;
3. Coming to conclusions-determining how your company acts on the intelligence it gathers, and;
4. Learning from experience.
The authors guide the reader through each of the steps providing insight into the process, highlighting key concepts, and providing case studies and worksheets so the reader can begin to track their own issues at hand. Russo and Shoemaker have presented this material in such a way as to demystify the "process" of decisionmaking. The "process" gets so much attention as being clandestine, complex and erudite. However, by providing a detailed framework reflecting a relatively mechanical and logical process to making a decision, the authors have uncorked the mystery. When confronted with the need to assess a situation, gather information and reach a decision, most managers depend on a hit-or-miss approach. This approach is different from executive-to-executive and is measured relative to the frequency and experience an executive may have "putting out the proverbial fire." While there's nothing inherently wrong or incorrect about this type of venerable process, this process typically results in a lower-end spectrum result when nothing but mid-high to high results will suffice as a necessary competitive edge.
The alternative approach presented by the authors allows executives/managers to reframe issues by asking such questions as "What is the crux of the issue that I am facing?" so that they don't end up solving the wrong problem (i.e. analogous to "looking from the outside in"). It also allows them to increase their options by doing such things as "not necessarily taking yes for an answer," when it comes to initial research findings. In fact, these alternatives may result in something quite creative and innovative, a veritable whack on the side of the head.
As they should, the authors stress to the reader that improving one's decisionmaking skills is not an ironclad guarantee to success. Execution of a solid operating (business) plan and being in the right place at the right time (luck) are factors tantanmount to any successful venture. However, it is rational and logical that if one makes better decisions, one's odds of success are bound to increase. And, as one gains experience in making decisions and acting upon the achieved results, desired or not, success rates grow exponentially.
A solid read.

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The Confident Decision Maker: How to Make the Right Business and Personal Decisions Every Time Review

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(More customer reviews)Dawson goes over many concepts that are common sense such as realizing the qualities of a good decision-maker, finding categories for decisions. I found it helpful for students taking courses on general OR/MS. The author provides a guideline to categorize the decision problems. Is it a problem or an opportunity you must decide upon this distinction is important. Do you really have to make a decision at all?
Dawson emphasizes something that students must learn what is OR/MS is all about. One must have access to information to be able to understand the problem and make a decision. The author also emphasizes at length the importance of intuitive decision making as well as logical decision making. Both are equally important for any decision. I feel that, while students know how to do it logically, this book helps them to understand it even better. Successfully decision-making is not a talent but a 'learned skill' composed of 'concentrated though'' and 'rapid reasoning powers'. His predictable formula for reaching the best decisions and solutions combines analysis, synthesis and judgment and requires developing a sense of timing and ability to handle uncertainty and elements of risk.
The book contains interesting topics categorized into twelve chapters: The Qualities of a Good Decision Maker; Categorizing the Decision; Blueprinting the Decision; Intuitive Decision Making; Developing Rapid Reasoning; Expanding Your Options; Logical Decision Making; Reaction Tables and Decision Trees; Huddling; Barriers to Confident Decisions; Styles of Decision Making; The Nine Traits of Great Decision Makers; and The 21-Day Plan for Confident Decision Makers. Dawson lists seven steps to confident decision making, these are: Accurately categorize the situation so you start looking for the solution in the right decision. Blueprint the problem accurately, so your mind totally focuses on the problem it has to solve. Saturate your mind with facts about the problem. Position your mind for Rapid Reasoning by shutting down the left brain and stimulating the right. Move away from the problem, either physically or mentally, so your mind can view it objectively. Increase your options through a checklist of ten creative possibilities. The last step is illustrated in the book by several examples which show that often our intuition lets us down and we make sub-optimal decisions. Some decisions require for the most part, logic. Dawson uses the same example most instructors use in classrooms that of the coin toss. He describes using the coin toss to help make a decision, if only to see how you really feel about the outcome of the coin toss. He suggests making a list of the many possibilities, rating those possibilities on a scale of 1 to 10.
The author discusses reaction tables and decision trees in chapter 8. He uses a very good example of whether or not to build a house on a piece of land he owns. This decision becomes extremely complicated with costs rising or falling, different house styles, falling in love with someone who hates the house, etc? 'Decision Tree enables you to break down decision so that you can manager uncertainty more effectively. As you develop your tree of options, you need to accurately predict the likelihood of something happening or nor happening. That's where the science of probabilities comes into play. Dawson stresses the importance of showing the likelihood of an out come happening on a decision tree. Finally I would like to leave you with Dawson's 'Good' Decision Makers:Having a high tolerance for ambiguity, having a well-ordered sense of priorities, being a good listener, always building the consensus around a decision, avoiding stereotypes, always remaining resilient, being comfortable with both soft and hard input, being realistic about cost and difficulty, and avoiding a decision minefield. Overall, I have come to value the idea and usefulness of making decision using logical tools such as decision trees. I recommend 'The Confident decision Maker' for everyone interested to know what OR/MS is all about.

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Dawson has helped hundreds of thousands of people negotiate the best deal with his Secrets of Power Negotiating tape series. Now, after talking to hundreds of top executives about successful and not-so-successful decisions they've made, he reveals the art and science of making excellent decisions.

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