Showing posts with label warren buffett. Show all posts
Showing posts with label warren buffett. Show all posts

Warren Buffett on Business: Principles from the Sage of Omaha Review

Warren Buffett on Business: Principles from the Sage of Omaha
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With the main exception of a relatively small textile producer known as Berkshire Hathaway, which Warren Buffett bought outright and which became the springboard for his investing career, the earlier part of Buffett's long and successful career was mainly devoted to non-controlling investments in companies, versus buying whole companies. Thus, today many people think of Buffett as "the world's most successful investor." However, Buffett's investing skills are not the primary topic of this relatively brief and easy reading book (although there is one chapter on personal investing). This book, written by Richard Connors and based on a class he taught about Buffett at the Washington University in St. Louis Lifelong Learning Institute, is devoted to describing Buffett's management activities as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. That's not a bad idea at all, given that over the years Buffett has gradually placed comparatively less emphasis on Berkshire's investments (which today include the likes of American Express, Coca-Cola and Wells Fargo) and greater emphasis on Berkshire's growing stable of wholly-owned subsidiaries. Indeed, the list of owned companies, like GEICO, International Dairy Queen, Shaw Industries, FlightSafety, Borsheim's Fine Jewelry, Nebraska Furniture Mart and The Pampered Chef, among numerous others, has grown quite large.
The prime source for this book--by far--is Buffett's annual letters to Berkshire's shareholders, written over the last 40 years. Indeed, if you were to count words, my guess is that 95% or more of this book is simply the reproduction of Buffett's comments in his various letters, organized by Connors, the book's author. So if you have read Buffett's letters over the years (an exercise I would recommend to almost anyone interested in business or investing), then you won't find much new material in this book, save for excerpts from occasional interviews with Charlie Rose or excerpts from some of Buffett's other interviews or comments.
Connors has organized Buffett's shareholder commentaries into chapters that address the various important issues of corporate management: executive compensation, time management, assessment of risk, corporate governance and culture, crisis management, capital allocation and shareholder communication, among others. Buffett's comments are interesting, valuable and candid, and he is a very clear and entertaining writer. There is some human interest material, such as an account of Buffett's 1951 Saturday trip to Washington, DC to visit the offices of GEICO (because his mentor, Benjamin Graham, was the chairman of the company). As the somewhat well-known story goes, Buffett pounded on the door to GEICO's locked building, until a custodian finally led him to meet Lorimer Davidson, an assistant to GEICO's president at the time. Davidson, who would go on to become CEO of GEICO, took the time to educate young Buffett on the power of direct marketing of insurance, and years later Buffett would go on to buy the whole company.
In short, although there is precious little new material provided here (hence the four-star rating, not five), this is a very interesting book, and it is interesting primarily because it was essentially written by Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors--and corporate managers--of all time.


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What Works on Wall Street, Fourth Edition: The Classic Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time Review

What Works on Wall Street, Fourth Edition: The Classic Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time
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What Works on Wall Street? According to a study of 45 years of stock market data in a book called "What works on Wall Street" by O'Shaughnesy he came to the conclusion that some strategies would have produced greater returns than the S&P 500 whilst others produced less. He tested a range of strategies, re-balancing the strategies annually, with each strategy involving the 50 stocks which met the criteria for inclusion.
The worst strategy that you could have adopted was to buy last year's losers each year. The message is clear - losers carried on being losers. Sometimes the weak beats the strong, but it's not the way to bet your money.
The next ten worst strategies involved buying Companies on high multiples such as high price to sales ratio companies. These companies were generally on high multiples because they were thought to be high growth or sexy companies with lots of potential. They were the then current stock market darlings that investors were prepared to pay up for in order to join in with the latest investment fad or fashion.
As far as the best performing strategies are concerned, he found that the top 6 strategies all involved buying companies with high relative strength in combination with a value factor such as low p/e or low price to sales ratio. These companies were generally on low multiples because they were in out of favour sectors or old economy share that had been overlooked. By combining it with high relative strength (i.e. shares which were rising), these strategies caught those shares whose under-valuation was finally starting to be recognised by the market.
The book found that over long periods, adopting the following rules would have proved to be more profitable than buying the S&P 500: Low price to sales stocks out-perform the higher p/s stocks. Low price to cash flow stocks do better than high p/cfl stocks. Low price to book stocks tend to perform better than high p/b stocks. Other conclusions reached in the book are as follows: Price to sales ratio is the best single value ratio to use for buying market beating stocks. Last years biggest losers are the worst stocks you can buy. Last years earnings gains alone are worthless when determining if a stock is a good investment. You can do four times as well as the S&P 500 by concentrating on large well known stocks with high dividend yields. Relative strength is the only growth variable that consistently beats the market.
Buying Wall Street's current darlings with the highest price to earnings ratios is one of the worst things you can do.
Other lines from the book: Growth investors believe in a Company's potential and think a stock's price will rise with its earnings.
Value investors believe in a company's balance sheet, thinking a stock's price will eventually rise to meet its intrinsic value.
The S&P 500 tracker strategy is a strategy making disciplined bets on large cap companies. This strategy is just one of hundreds of strategies which could exist. For example another strategy might be to measure the performance of all stocks that begin with the letters h,l,m,n, and p. There are many other strategies which have given higher returns in the past than the S&P 500 strategy, some for no logical reason, others with a certain logic. Examples of logical strategies include a disciplined small cap strategy, or a disciplined low price to sales strategy or a disciplined high yield strategy etc. Some of those strategies also performed more consistently than the S&P 500 strategy, ie with less risk.
For example if in the 1950s the editors at Dow Jones had decided to revamp the index buying the 50 stocks with the lowest price to sales ratio, then the Dow Jones Industrial Index would be at 4 times the level of today.
People want to believe the present is different from the past. The price of a stock is still determined by people. As long as people let fear, greed, hope and ignorance cloud their judgement they will continue to mis-price stocks and provide opportunities to those who rigorously use simple time tested strategies to pick stocks. Names change, industries change. Styles come in and out of fashion, but the underlying characteristics that identify a good or bad investment remain the same.

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